Since I didn't Watch the Derby...

         Just got back from Pittsburgh.  Major League baseball has taken that town over, lock, stock and barrel.  Decals all over the sidewalks, Duquesne Hill, the airport, everything.  Festive as all get-out.  It’s nice to see.  I’m not sure you’d be able to generate that kind of uniformity in NYC.  There’s too much going on at any given time.  You could throw all kinds of MLB/All-Star game stuff around, and two blocks later you would run into a lingering Italy World Cup block party.  What are you gonna do….

         We’re getting the old Wednesday Night Superstars together this coming Wednesday, appropriately.  The Superstars was the name of our regular card game back in Astoria, Queens.  Chris Woy is back in town, so we’re going to get the crew together over at Acc’s and get it going.  Now, long-time followers of the blog know that the Yanks don’t lose on card night (Ruddy certainly knows it), so in a sense we’re wasting it, because there are no ballgames that night.  But we’ll pull it out when we need to.  Whatever it takes.

         I mentioned yesterday that the biggest stories in the AL East were the Yankee injuries and the Red Sox pleasant surprises.  In that order.  Who is the biggest pleasant surprise?  Papelbon.  You can’t argue with a guy who has thrown that many innings with an ERA that low.  Is he the next Rivera?  No.  Before I explain why, I will throw out the usual caveat; I am a Yankee fan, so I don’t pretend to have any credibility here.  Of course I am going to say that.  But here are my reasons.  If you think they’re bogus, fine.  If you think they make sense, we’re on to something. 

        Papelbon has been lights out all year.  No argument.  The next question you need to ask is how he is doing it.  Here’s how.  He has been extremely consistent in his ability to throw strikes.  He’s got nasty stuff, but it’s not anything that anybody hasn’t seen before.  He throws hard, and he has a nasty bender.  So do lots of guys.  The difference is that there will be times when he loses the zone.  It happens to everybody.  And then he’s got to take a little off, or rely on one certain pitch, or just give in and throw meatballs.  Good fastball hitters who guess right can take those guys out at any given time.  Dye handed him a blown save just yesterday.  Another thing he’s got going for him right now is that he’s basically taking his first pass through the league.  Nobody has seen him.  The Yanks (and the Red Sox, for that matter) couldn’t beat a rookie straight out of double A, if they’ve never seen him before.  And if he’s throwing strikes.  You have to look at a complete body of work in a season to know what you’ve got.         

        Here’s the difference with Mo Rivera.  He throws one pitch.  Sure, he goofs around with a cutter that goes the other way these days, but basically the guy throws one pitch.  You know it’s coming, and you still can’t hit it.  There’s been a lot said about pitching over the years.  “The art of hitting is timing, and the art of pitching is disrupting that timing.”  “You need to change speeds to get hitters out.  Major League hitters will all hit 100 mph fastballs, so you need to change speeds to get them out.”  They all go right out the window with Mo Rivera.  He throws the same pitch at the same speed.  You just can’t hit it.  It’s such a deceptive thing.  He can throw it for strikes, so you can’t take it, but if you try and swing you might as well close your eyes.  Literally.  It’s like you just try and aim for where you think the ball might end up.  We’ve all seen Mo get beat, but it’s always the same way.  Little bloops and flairs that skitter off the bat fortuitously, but accidentally.  There’s nobody else out there like that.  You can’t time him; you can’t guess right on a fastball, you can’t do much of anything.  He is the standard by which all others are measured.  With Jenks, Papelbon, and B.J. Ryan on his staff, Ozzie Guillen was asked who would close.  He said, simply, “Mariano Rivera’s on the team, Mariano Rivera’s the closer.”  That’s why Papelbon will never be Mo.   

        There is a lot of speculation on who the Yanks should go get, and what moves Cashman should make.  Not sure I have an answer, boys.  I go back and forth on this myself.  You guys are a lot better at the speculation than I am.  One thing I would caution against.  Myths.  You want to hear a big one?  One that you’ve heard over and over?  Pitching and defense wins championships.  The stats don’t bear it out.  Sometimes, yes.  But not most of the time.  Believe it or not, the numbers show that most of the time the team that is better at scoring runs has the better shot.  So much has been made of the Red Sox brilliant fielding in the first half.  Great.  The last three teams to lead the lead in fielding were the Braves, Dodgers, and Mariners.  Not only are there no championships in that bunch, but only one of those teams had a winning record!  In 2004 the Red Sox were 12th in the league in pitching and 22nd in fielding percentage.  The Angels didn’t beat anybody in 2002 by out-pitching them.  The 2005 White Sox did.  You never know for sure in any given year, but the stats make a better case for teams that can score.  And we are getting Dotel back.  Maybe he’ll give us something, as Umair suggests.  This might be ridiculous, but I say we need to find out a little bit more about Chacon.  Is he still hurt?  He hasn’t been right since he had that bone bruise.  I know he wasn’t automatic before that, but he was 4-1.  Maybe we shut him down for a month and let him find himself at Columbus.  I have to believe that the guy that was coming up so big last year is in there somewhere.  Maybe I’m nuts. 

        Look for one group of players to be standing on their heads to win the All-Star game tomorrow (tonight), and that will be the Mets.  Their playoffs start tomorrow, and with a huge game.  I think after sampling the better teams in the AL, the Mets realize that they probably need home field to win.  They will be desperate.  At least they should be.

        Kenny Rogers is a horrible choice to start tomorrow.  You heard it here first.  But Brad Penny might be just as bad…