Off Day Ramblings

         I took a quick stroll down to Battery Park today around lunchtime.  Sunshine sprayed all over the place, and the tourists out in force, although slightly less than the peak summer season.  I strolled down past Castle Clinton and stopped by the boat launch.  I called Tony Sherry back, as he had called me at the office earlier.  I realized I really couldn’t linger, because I had made the poor decision to wear my suit jacket out.  It was a bit warm.  I really didn’t mind, though, as it had been a while since we had a nice day like this.  He is anxiously awaiting the return of the Ferocious Lion.  Why wouldn’t he be?

        The Ferocious Lion will be back soon, and I’m hearing Sheffield will be close behind (Happymeds, this is the word on the street, as I’ve heard it).  I want to see the whole thing just once.  Ras, here’s my position.  I agree with the second thing you said.  Everyone should be playing for rings and to bring my trophy back where it belongs.  And whatever gets us there is what I want to do.  I am not about “rewarding” anybody, frankly.  Put the guy who gives you the best chance to win out there at all times.  If it is truly Melky, play Melky.  If it is the Ferocious Lion and Sheffield, put them out there.  And if they are truly healthy, and I realize that’s a big “if;” then I think it’s the Ferocious Lion and Sheffield.  I agree Melky’s a better defender, but as most of you know, I’m always ready to blow up the “pitching and defense wins championships” nonsense.  The team that wins is the team that scores more runs than the other team.  Defense rarely plays into the outcome of a game.  Think about it.  Most outs in a game are routine.  It’s not often you see a phenomenal defensive play change the course, or more importantly, outcome of a game.  It happens, sure, but not often.  The Red Sox are a great example.  Remember earlier in the year when everyone was gushing about the Red Sox stellar defense?  And remember the BPS reminded everyone that the top defensive teams in baseball haven’t even all had winning records the last five years, let alone made the playoffs.  The top run scoring teams always make the playoffs.  The top two run scoring teams right now?  Yankees and White Sox.  Two legitimate championship contenders.  The top two fielding teams right now?  Red Sox and Astros.  One non-contender and one team under .500. The ability to score runs will put its stamp on every single game played, guaranteed.  The Ferocious Lion and Sheffield are run producers.  Big time, foot-on-your-throat run producers.  Those are the guys you need.  I love Melky, I love what he’s done, I think he’s got a bright future, etc.  But come playoff time, winning matters.  His reward will be a ring.

         Raoul, I’m glad you weighed in on my Marlin-bashing post.  And Happymeds and JD.  Gives me something to ramble on about today.  Raoul, it seems to me my point escaped you.  You are misfiring in one key area – your conditional statement.  IF the Marlins have a shot at the playoffs, THEN they must be kind of good, which is “amazing,” “surprising,” “a good story,” etc.  Every single one of your statements is predicated on that conditional.  Keeping their record, 70-70, and taking them out of contention (where they do not belong), the “noteworthiness” disappears.  With this in mind, you can’t be duped into just assuming the system is correctly calibrated.  You need to first question the validity of this conditional statement:  IF the system works correctly, THEN all of the best teams will be in contention, and none of the bad ones will be in contention.  JD had it right exactly.  It doesn’t work.  This immediately negates any conditional that would claim the Marlins should be considered, in any way, a “good” team, regardless of their synthetic “contender” status.  Let’s walk through it.

         The Marlins are exactly .500.  They currently have the 16th best record in baseball in a 30 team league.  Or 15th best out of 29 places, if you want to count the tie they’re in with the Giants.  So either way you cut it, they’re not in the top half of best records in the league.  And that’s not even telling the whole story.  They have achieved this middling level of non-success while playing against quadruple-A competition.  There are only five teams in the AL with a worse record than Florida.  And teams like Cleveland, Seattle, and even Baltimore have records that are 2, 3, and 8 games respectively in the loss column worse than Florida, but they are playing 19 games against the likes of the Yankees, Minnesota, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Oakland, Anaheim, etc.  Even in Baltimore’s case, if you take away their losses against the Yankees and Red Sox, they’re a .500 team.  That would leave two teams in the entire American League worse than Florida.  But let’s call it three, including Baltimore.  And currently nine teams in the National League have a worse record than Florida, but two of those are exactly one game in the loss column worse.  So that’s seven or nine in a 16 team league worse than Florida.  Which pretty much puts them right in the middle of the pack in that rotting pit of quadruple-A baseball, the National League.  So that’s ten teams that are definitely, legitimately worse than the Marlins this year.  Out of 30.  The Marlins are not a good baseball team.  The fact that they are in contention has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that they are good.  They are decidedly below average.  The reason they are in contention is that they have found themselves twisted into a wonderful confluence of events in which the leagues and divisions have fallen just so as to give them a hope (and not a great hope) of making the playoffs, when they can’t even make the statement that they have won more games than they have lost.  That was my point.  The Florida Marlins are a brilliant example of the system failing.  If you want to tell me that you’re impressed that a team with a $15mm payroll has managed to climb up to be the 20th or 21st best team in a 30 team league, be my guest.  But don’t think that it means anything that they “may” or “might” “have a shot” at the playoffs.

         I’ll go one further.  The Marlins are the worst thing that could happen to baseball fans.  The ownership has stuck their middle finger up at their fans, refusing to spend a dime, while pocketing millions in luxury tax from owners that are actually trying to put a quality product on the field.  And they are exactly .500 in a dreadfully below average league.  The fact that this confluence of events has actually put them in contention has masked the fact that they are not good and have no business being in contention.  But this is only going to incentivize other owners to pull this same stunt. 

         Meanwhile, let’s look at the other team from yesterday’s example; the Blue Jays.  Here is a team that is actually trying.  They are competing against the two biggest powerhouses in baseball, but they are still making an effort.  They are spending money to attract and retain talent, they have hired a respected GM to try to build the team, and they are a good baseball team.  Just not good enough.  This same confluence of events has failed them, and in turn mlb, in spades.  Since they are not in contention, despite the fact that as little as two weeks ago their record would have been the second-best in the entire National League, no one cares and they are considered a failure.  And no owners want to end up there - spend money and fail to generate any buzz.    

         The bottom line is that this Marlin situation is going to cause way more bad than good for mlb down the road.  And anyone who lauds the Marlins, pretending they have had some kind of success, turning a blind eye to the truth - that their position is due to being in a terrible pool of competition – is a full-blown enabler to the problem. 

        And I was worried I wouldn’t have anything to talk about on the off-day….