Think...

         Sean and I were talking the other day about a book called The Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki.  The basic premise of the book is that the crowds, i.e. the general populace, when polled individually and aggregated, will collectively be able to predict the outcomes of events and potential scenarios more accurately than any single expert or group of experts on the subject.  More accurately.  That’s important.  Grossman, Vino, the Lt, JJ, Vino, and Big Willie may remember an exercise we did back in b-school concerning the academy awards.  Interesting book; I recommend it.  There is an excellent example of that in sports.  You may know it as the betting line.  Big Joe (father-in-law), along with countless others, is always mystified when a team covers or doesn’t cover a football game by a half a point.  “How do they know?” he always says to me.  Well, this crowd-wisdom theory does a pretty good job of explaining it.  You first have to understand how the betting lines work.  The line is set by whatever odds-makers in Vegas, but that has little to do with where it ends up.  The line moves up or down depending on what people are betting.  The collective will of the people will correct the line until it’s at its final point.  The final line, at game-time of whatever event, is supposed to be the exact middle point between the amount of people who think one team will cover and the people who think that team will not cover.  So it’s actually the crowd that sets the line.  The crowd is the “they” that Big Joe laments.  And, as you hear people groan/cheer all over offices and back rooms at bars, the people do a pretty **** good job.   

         So what does that have to do with anything?  I cite this as an example of my growing frustration with Joe Torre and his “resting” philosophy.  Joe Torre continues to put the pedal-to-the-medal, resting three four starters a game.  On Friday night he rested five starters, including Giambi, admittedly, who most definitely should not be starting.  But all the more reason to be careful about resting four other starters on the same night.  And this included, as gjp accurately and astutely pointed out, The Ferocious Lion.  Why, oh why would you be resting the Ferocious Lion?  This absolutely mystifies me.  Why would you be resting any of these guys, come to think of it?  But that one is insane.  First of all, the guy has had four months off.  Second of all, he needs to get his stroke down, and he doesn’t have a lot of time to do it.  But even so, these guys are professional athletes, most of whom are in their prime.  How much, physically, is it really taking out of you to play in a baseball game?  Think about it.  Or maybe the better question is; how much does it help you to not play in a baseball game?  Especially when Torre is just going to call on you to pinch-hit late in the game anyway.  Are you really doing the guys that much good?  There are some cases in which I would argue it does.  Posada plays a difficult position, and he’s not a kid anymore.  So I don’t have an issue resting him, but you absolutely need to get him his at-bats to keep him sharp, and maybe those come as a late-inning pinch hitter.  Okay.  But I would argue that many of these guys might be ill-affected by the resting.  Abreu?  The Ferocious Lion?  Jeter?  Damon?  Allie-boy?  Particularly Allie-boy, who has, as we knew he would, sunk to the bottom of another slump after the SI story broke.  Some would say that there is strong evidence to support the idea that it actually hurts the players, taking them out of their rhythm, upsetting their routines.  Not to mention infielders are playing with unfamiliar double-play combinations and pitchers and catchers are out of synch.  John Sterling, during the broadcasts last Friday night, stated that “Torre insists he doesn’t give any credence to home-field.”  That he “just wants his team ready.”  And this, to Joe Torre, means a relentless, hard-core sitting program.  I think this is insane, as I’ve said many times here in BPS.  And I’ve offered the 2005 game five-playoff loss to the Angels as an example, how Torre was willing to lose by resting almost all of his starters on the last day of the season while Mike Scoscia won by sending out all of his starters, stealing home- field from right out under Torre’s nose.  And how huge it turned out to be…  So here I’ll ask a question, along the lines of the crowd-wisdom philosophy.  If you open a betting line for a series, which is going to move the line, i.e. the crowd or general populace, to a greater degree - one team’s players having rested more, or home-field advantage?  I’ll give you a hint, it’s not even close.   

         Another point.  The one guy Torre has been careful not to sit is Cano, because he needs enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title.  Cano, and to a lesser extent Jeter, who will qualify regardless, is exempt because he is chasing an individual achievement.  But yet Wang, Moose, And Randall, who with varying degrees, have all been chasing twenty win seasons this year, watch their individual achievement hopes suffer greatly because they have to pitch with a largely triple and double-A lineup behind them every game after September 1.  Funny….   

         I say all of this because the Yankees, after spending most of the weekend not only with home-field throughout, but also with the best record in all of baseball, have today moved a half-game behind the Tigers for best-record.  Now, it’s a bit misleading, because the Yankees still control their destiny, being that they are tied in the loss column and if they tie the Yankees will get home-field because they won the season series.  And it’s also true that the Tigers were playing the Royals.  But the Yankees have lost two of three (with one still to play) to Tampa Bay.  Opportunity wasted.  I am not foolish enough to think that nobody in the American League has a chance to beat the Yankees.  But I am saying that there is nothing that Torre could achieve by resting guys from here on out that would affect the rest of the league’s chances more than not sending out your A-team to claim home-field advantage.  So quit fooling around and take what’s yours.