The Long, Lonely Road

I tried not to look.  Honestly.  Sometimes you just don't want to know, especially when you're not feeling good about things.  I'm talking about last Friday night.  I was at Elia's on Third Avenue with the missus as my sister was at home babysitting the boy.  The missus, no longer constrained by the thou-art-pregnant rules, was ready to hit the feta in the Greek salad and the house white wine.  And of course while we were at it, the Saganaki (fried cheese with lemon) was a no-brainer.  And although the missus usually goes with the lamb ravioli as her go-to, she strayed from the script to do the swordfish special.  I went with the Australian rack-of-lamb and Greek fries, over the lamb youvetsi or the mousaka.  Tony Sherry and Mrs. Tony Sherry usually join us at Elia's, but Tony thought he was going to be out in Arizona shooting another commercial last weekend (yup, amazingly, you have probably seen Tony Sherry in a few commercials on TV), so Mrs. Tony made other plans.  Turns out he was stuck at home out of luck.  At one point he considered tacking on, third-wheel style, just for the saganaki.  So as I was finishing up the Greek pressed yogurt with honey and walnuts, which I've determined I may have a slight addiction to, and the missus was polishing off her ek-mek and dessert wine, I accidentally glanced over at the TV at the bar.  I could make out the graphic "Player of the game" on the screen as they flashed a clip of Daniel Cabrera delivering a pitch to Bobby Abreu.  'This is it," I thought to myself.  If this is a replay of Bobby Abreu smashing the ball, the Yankees won.  If he strikes out, they lost.  Whiff.  Dammit.  I lost my appetite.  Good thing I was almost done.  If I was Acc, I would have ordered another entrée....

            The Yankees are at an interesting crossroads at the moment.  They have been largely unspectacular early in the year.  What else is new...  They have gotten a lot less than they had hoped from the back end of the rotation (and by "lot less" I mean exactly one win), and they have gotten anemic hitting, to the point where they were at the very bottom of the league in offense-related stats up until a few games ago.  They are in the middle of an 18-of-20 road stretch, and so far they've missed a chunk of time with Posada, Jeter, Joba, and now Allie Rodriguez.  Frankly, the idea that they are even at 10-10 is a hands-down miracle. 

            There was some noise from Hank Steinbrenner over the weekend that he wanted Joba in the rotation.  I don't really agree or disagree, but let's frame the discussion.  The point isn't that Joba can come in and put out a fire to contribute almost every day, rather than once every five.  The point, or the question, actually, is which of these two things is greater - the games that Joba shuts down in the eighth inning that otherwise would have been lost, or the number of wins that he could give you in the rotation that would otherwise have been lost.  That's the key.  Nobody likes to sweat through Kyle Farnsworth teetering on the ledge, but how many games are actually lost because the Farnsworth's and Bruney's cough it up in the otherwise-Joba eighth inning?  A few, definitely.  But if you look at the numbers, it probably isn't that many.  They may make you sweat a bit more, but the season isn't about peace of mind, it's about the result.  So the next part of the question is how many additional wins would Joba get you in the rotation than either Mike Mussina or Ian Kennedy?  The fifth starter, be it Moose or Kennedy, will probably be looking at 10 or 11 wins (Moose was 11-10 last year).  How many would Joba get you in addition to those 10 or 11?  Would he be a phenom and get you 20?  Or is 16 more realistic for a very good first year in the rotation?  So that's the decision the Yankees need to make.  If you figure Bruney and Farnsworth might lose 3 or 4 games for the Yanks out of that eighth inning, and you think Joba would win 5 or 6 more games out of the fifth starter slot, the numbers say he should be a starter.  If you think Bruney and Farnsworth will lose 4 or 5 out of the eighth inning (to simply blow the lead wouldn't count here - the Yankees need to lose the game for this to have relevance; winning is the goal here) and Joba would only give you 3 or 4 more wins as a starter than Kennedy or Moose, then it would make sense to keep him in the bullpen.  Of course, you could argue that there is the psychological element.  It is unnerving to know that it's getting late and Joba and Mo are looming.  So that's why I'm undecided here.

            The Red Sox seem to be finding their early-season miracles.  Things are going to get more ominous for the Yankees before they get better.  While the Yankees are going through 18 out of 20 on the road, the Red Sox are in the middle of 19 out of 26 at home.  Their staff is basically identical to the Yankees.  Beckett is the ace, better at his best, certainly, than Wang, but more inconsistent over the last four years.  Dice K is no Pettitte; Wakefield and Moose can both thank the fact that they have solid-hitting teams behind them to buy them some wins; Hughes has more potential than Bucholz, but for now they will both find their way through their first full seasons.  Lester probably has more potential than Ian Kennedy, but most baseball insiders are saying that the Red Sox badly overestimated his value, foolishly refusing to include him in a deal with Coco Crisp to get Johan Santana.  The Yankees had no such delusions with Ian Kennedy.  He was always in play.  All four of the kids, from what I have seen, are getting squeezed mightily by the umpires this year.  Looks like they're going to have to earn it.  The difference in the Yankees and Red Sox this year has been the offense.  First of all, I loved the Sean Casey signing.  He fits perfectly with their scheme.  Takes a lot of pitches, good eye, great defense.  Lowell's been out and they haven't missed a beat.  It reminded me of when the Yankees got John Olerud in 2004.  And every Yankee fan alive knows it was no coincidence that Olerud got hurt at the end of game three of that ALCS and the collapse began in game four.  The question for the Red Sox is who loses playing time when Lowell gets back?  I say Lowell.  I think the Sox got lucky with him last year, with his season numbers well above his career averages.  Plus it's tough to come off an injury and get back into the swing.  Nice problem to have, though.  On the down side, they are riding a home wave right now, and they have needed a few miracles to be where they are.  And those have a habit of evening themselves out.  They do this every year.  And their bullpen is a problem.  So this season is not a foregone conclusion.

            Last thing on the Red Sox.  The YES broadcast team relayed a story the other day about Kevin Long, the Yankees' hitting instructor, and a conversation he had with Manny Ramirez last week as Manny took BP at 11am.  The point of their story was, "What a hard worker is; Manny is out there at 11am!"  But I think they missed the broader point of the conversation.  The way they told it, Long asked Manny why he was jawing with the ump the night before (Wednesday).  He explained, they said, that it was a contract year and he couldn't afford to give away at-bats.  Now again, this story was third-hand, but why didn't anybody ask why it was okay to put his team's chances at a win in jeopardy by risking getting thrown out because he doesn't want to "give away at-bats" in a contract year?  And I was there that night.  He wasn't just jawing; he was wagging his finger in Tim McClelland's face.  Sitting in the stands, we couldn't believe McClelland didn't toss him.  And a few days later, he did get thrown out of the game for arguing balls and strikes.  What a d*uche...

            The long, lonely road continues....